<subject "Notes from Space Exploration 2005">
<nedstat "ADVHmA3AI7GTGfkBwHmpLlYz5Vmg">

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P1: Introduction

As always going to the conference was very inspiring. A lot of progress has
been made since the last conference, mainly because the money allocated to
ISR by congress has arrived. Tuesday's sessions were the most relevant. I
have only taken notes for Space Elevator related talks.

The big news since the last conference is that ISR finally has received the
money congress had earmarked for it; 2.5 M$ I think. Carbon Designs Inc is
also providing funding (2 M$) to a CNT research group at LANL. So things
are slowly getting going on the funding side.

The conference website is {{[jump="http://www.sesinstitute.org"] here}}.
I presented a paper on what happens if the space elevator breaks. You can
download a preliminary version
{{[jump="../../publications/FateOfABrokenSpaceElevator.pdf"] here}}, or get my slides 
from the conference 
{{[jump="BrokenElevator.ppt"](ppt)}}
{{[jump="BrokenElevator.sxi"](sxi - OpenOffice)}}
{{[jump="BrokenElevator.pdf"](pdf - no animations)}}. The pictures I took
are {{[jump="../../pictures/2005/04-SpaceExplorationConference/"] here}}.

The following notes are surely incomplete and full of errors, and I
naturally decline all responsibility for problems that could result from
information herein.

P1: Day 0: Sunday April 3rd 2005

P2: Dr. Galen Gisler, Supercomputer Calculations of the Meteor Impact that
Killed the Dinosaurs

* Introduction to the geological evidence of the end of the Cretaceous.

* Use continuous adaptive mesh for their computations. Goudonov hydro technique.

* Runs at different angles.

P1: Day 1: Monday April 4th 2005

In the morning there was a keynote address by Wendell Mendell on the
direction of Bush's space program, and what place the moon should play.
Then Haym Benaroya talked about engineering of moon bases and William
Dempster talked about Biosphere 2. Over lunch a demonstration of a robot
that finds a lava tube (a gypsum box in the ground), digs into it and
pressurizes it; quite neat!

P2: Panel with conference cosponsors

Bryan Laubscher (LANL)
Brad Edwards (Carbon Designs)
Others for whom I didn't seem the name written representing ISR,
Spacegrant, Space Science and Engineering Institute and one other.

Brad is now working at Carbon Designs which is trying to get the CNT
material developed. Little detail on how exactly. Apparently he is also
interacting with ESA and some company that would be interested in working
on SE engineering in Amsterdam or Spain respectively. ISR has apparently
gotten their long awaited funding from Marshall.

Brad also mentioned trying to arrange for an independent evaluation of the
current SE proposal to identify key points that need to be worked on. The
elevator 2010 climber competition apparently has 15 teems interested in
competing, not sure yet when the competition would be. The Arthur C. Clarke 
foundation is also showing interest.

Brad : At lots of funding meetings people talk about putting a few more
billions into rockets to get a few percent improvement. Lack of vision and
willingness to take risk and try out a relatively cheap option like the
space elevator that much more promise. Not clear that government agencies
are going to be able to make the SE happen. Need to talk to other
communities (e.g. Paul Allen).

The ISR guy. Held a workshop at university of Kentucky with the leading
CNT researchers. Pure CNT appears to have strength of about 200 GPa
according to current research. 10 GPa appears to be within grasp within 3
to 5 years. Consensus is that the next step we need for the SE is still
completely unclear. Different ways of transferring loads between individual
nanotubes will probably be needed. Currently space shuttle replacement
seems to be the main funding focus. We need to find a place to get funding
for the basic Research.

Brad's response: There is enough funding to get to the 10 to 20 GPa mark
within a year or so.

Raytheon guy in audience mentioned that his company is very interested in
developing infinite length nanotubes. Brad/Bryan say Bryan are starting to
get such things already as well as some guys in Japan. For now growth rates
are probably still too slow.

P1: Day 2: Tuesday April 5th 2005

P2: Brad Edwards, The Space Elevator... building our future.

* Inspirational movie showing the SE and its potential.

* Overview of what the SE is.

* Operating costs estimated at 100 kg/lb, ready in 15 years at most
optimistic.

* SE would make space economical and opens up lots of new applications.
Solar power satellites, large payloads to moon or Mars, tourism, better
communications. Tourism (dinner cruises or more).

* Current activities; issues being attacked: dynamics, materials, ribbon
design, radiation, applications, public awareness, engineering
competitions, technical conferences, overall system design, ... So far
these activities are independent and not coordinated.

* Business development. Public promotion, merchandising, investment and
revenue generation.

* Future efforts. First priority is the material: basic development and
commercial production. We need organized engineering efforts. We need
merchandising.

* Ongoing efforts: Carbon designs to develop high strength materials.
Organized engineering efforts SEDCO, James Beggs, Barry Thompson on Boards.
Centers under development in Barcelona and Amsterdam. Business development.
Lots of public promotion: competitions, documentary, sci-fi writing
competition, etc.

* Funding: Doesn't think public funding is going to happen, but lots of
private interest. May be a possibility of money through merchandising,
also.

P2: Alexander Windel from the Space Elevator Club, Raising Public Awareness
of the Space Elevator

* People are more aware of highly futuristic methods (warp drive) of access
to space than the space elevator. We need to get the message out to them.

* Need to show the public how the elevator can help with their goals.
Growth,  security, etc...

* Need to analyze the funding situation. Who are we competing with? Need
people to work on grant writing.

* Need to develop more conferences, educational partnerships, magazines,
etc.

* Everybody invited to contribute to the SE magazine. Has technical and
layman content. Authors get magazine for free.

* Conclusion: SE is one of the most important projects of the 21st century.
We need to let people know this!

P2: Rodney Andrews from University of Kentucky, Multiwall CNT in Pan-Based
Carbon Fiber

* No they don't have strong enough fiber yet. But they are doing their best
to push the envelope. Working with MWNT. Getting the process right is
critical to getting strong macro scale materials.

* Need to improve the dispersion of fibers (i.e. they don't clump together
when put in water). Critical to getting better materials.

* Functionalizing. With KOH (adds OH groups sticking out) or other methods.
Methacrylation then replaces OH groups with larger functional units.
This way you get very good dispersion water.

* Next you polymerize around the CNTs (Acrylonitrile). Even better
dispersion, can now be used for spinning.

* Make the fiber by extruding out of a die and drawing it down to thinner
diameters. Drawing very important to get better strength. Currently drawing
by factor of 40 about. Smaller fibers are stronger. Down to 5 to 10
microns.

* Carbonization process used to replace the PAN (Polyacrylonitrile) by
carbon. Drives out all the non carbon material by heating.

* Tensile properties. Looked at variations in E and sigma with percentage
of CNT and draw ratio.

* Low draw ratio is good (fewer voids, and something else).

* X-ray study of MWNT alignment. Higher draw ratios have better alignment
of the nanotubes.

* Voids are the worst defects as far as causing failure. Increasing the
draw ratio reduces the number of voids.

* Interface failure. MWNT can pull out of the matrix, or inner tubes can
slide out of outer tubes (telescoping). As they improve the process
telescoping is become more common (this is good, it means the other
problems are getting solved).

* During carbonization, the carbon tends to template itself on the
nanotubes increasing the organization of the sample.

* Reduce diameter!! Fewer defects and better alignment. Need to control
tension during carbonization to reduce shrinkage. MWNT may seed the growth
of oriented carbon. As alignment is improved, the effect of increasing MWNT
concentration will have a much bigger effect on strength.

P2: John Spadaro, ISR, Space Elevator Tether Design and Testing

* Trying to figure out baseline design for the tether, and test it.

* First order model based on Edwards and Pearson. Trades were run for
tension, tether taper and total mass as a function of bulk density.

* Looked at various amounts of prepreg keeping the ribbon together.

* Main criteria for tether: large strength to mass ratio, needs to survive
impact from orbital debris. Considered cables or ropes, but less good.
Considered hoytether and ribbon with interconnects (Edwards style).

* Ansys modeling, 11 strands with 14 tape sections. Simulating breaks.

* Did testing with exist CNT materials. Difficult to get nice uniform ribbon.

* They have been making a ribbon winding machine to make the ribbon. They
manage to make nice uniform ribbons with CNT or with stainless.

* They use painter's tape to interconnect the threads. Need this kind of
tape so that there is actually some slippage. Then they break threads and
see how things evolve.

P2: Nicole Skias, ISR, Finite Element Analysis of CNRC Space Elevator
Ribbons, Thermal Profile Study

* Goal: determine material property requirements of a SE between 0 and 1000
km. 

* Considering 10 micron carbon nanotube reinforced composite.

* The question is what is the coefficient of thermal expansion? What are
the temperature changes you are considering?

* Temperature profile: little annual variation near earth, more at higher
altitude. I got somewhat lost in the numbers.

P2: Larry Bartoszek, Bartoszek Engineering, Space Elevator Ribbon and
Climber from a Machine Design Perspective.

* This is a sequel to his June talk, more detail has been fleshed out.

* His goal: work out the details of the 230 construction climbers. First
climber is limited to 900 kg.

* He favors a design with two ribbons squeezed against the ribbon. Has made
a detailed CAD model. Uses spring loading to maintain the tension on the
ribbon. Uses a Schmitt coupling so that one of the wheels can move relative
to the frame and still have drive.

* Guesses coefficient of friction, gets the amount of force you need to
apply to the ribbon. Pretty large so you need to worry about fatigue.

* 20" roller has to rotate 63 million times to get to the top! Worried
about cracking a wheel axle, or cracking the periphery of the wheel,
leading to sharp pieces. 3 wheel pairs seems to be optimal.

* Not much data available on existing axial gap motors. He can't find a
torque-speed curve.

* He is 3x too high on the mass of the drive system compared with Brad's
mass budget. He doesn't know how he can do that.

P2: Panel on space access technology.

Brad Edwards, Carbon Design Inc
Allyn Smith, 
Ronald Morgan, LANL
George Whitesides, National Space Society
1 other guy from NASA

Brad : Little incentive for existing rocket companies to reduce launch cost.
If you halve the cost, you double the consumption and their revenue stays
about the same.

Whitesides : Current new commercial launch prospects are
very exciting.

NASA guy: we have reached the limits of ISP for rockets, we need something
new to really get access to space.

(...)

Brad : His pet access to space is the SE. He wants money to do the
engineering, no building yet. He isn't expecting much from NASA.

NSS guy: 2 other exciting new access to space concepts. Inflatables. Mass
driver on the slopes of the Kilimanjaro.

Brad : hopefully China's interest in space will help spurn US government to
continue funding space. He has even been invited to speak there.

P2: Ben Shelef on Elevator 2010

* Elevator 2010 wants to do what air-shows did for airplanes. There will be
a climber competition each year. This year it is at the end of September in
mountainview, CA. They will build a "vertical solar car on steroids" that
will climb using power from a xenon lamp. Will need to climb at 1 m/s, up
200 ft. Later (2006) teams will also provide the beaming system. So far 20
credible teams are signed up.

P2: David Lang, Approximating Aerodynamic Response to the Space Elevator to
Lower Atmospheric Wind Parameters.

* Introduction to GTOS and showed us the size of the finite elements he is
considering.

* Aerodynamic model. Uses a model that works well for kites.

* Reminds how the elevator is a very loose spring.

* Considers a wind profile that ramps up then back up and stays at zero.
Different widths were considered, and different climber positions.

* Animations with various winds. The elevator goes very near to horizontal.
A climber in LEO can get pulled down. Very thought provoking! Very little
extra stress in the ribbon, but huge displacements.

P2: Steve Patamia, LANL, Dynamic Response of Proposed Space Elevator to
Solar Radiation Pressure

* Considers the effect of solar wind on the elevator.

* Forces he is considering (not all today): currents induced by E-Field,
Photon Stream from the Sun, repositioning for debris avoidance, and climber
activity.

* Talked about modal analysis and the transverse modes of the elevator.

* Talked about the modes and what happens after a solar event.

P2: David Lang, Space Elevator Dynamic Response to In-Transit Climbers

* Studying different cases of climbers taking off, starting and stopping in
different ways. Lots of graphs, hard to take everything down. Generally,
the elevator is a very weak spring, and this appears everywhere in the
results.

* Coriolis effects induce east-west libration.

* Higher transit speeds induce greater libration.

* Transit timing may affect libration control.

* Climbing acceleration and arrest are manageable.

* All longitudinal dynamic modes can be excited.

P2: D. C. Dzierski (ISR), A Case Study and Simulation Depicting Orbital
Debris Encountered by the Space Elevator

* Goal: access amount of debris, and simulate an avoidance maneuver.

* What he did: Loaded the USSTRATCOM database into STK. Modeled SE with
sensors at LEO, MEO and GEO. Counted hits in a 24 hour period June 1 to
June 2 2005. Found one "access" during that day. Then ran GTOSS for
movement of elevator base. Figure out at what time you need to move the
base for the wave to be up there at the right time.

* Says the result is that the problem is manageable, but many of us in the
room find there is a big discrepancy here that needs to be resolved.

P2: A. M. Jorgensen, LANL, The Space Elevator and the Radiation Belts

* Going to talk about the origin and nature of the belts, as well as past
experience. Then will talk about ways of shielding.

* Cosmic rays, solar events, radiation belts are the different sources of
radiation. 

* Dangerous dose 10^2-10^4 Rad.

* Inner belt: protons up to 500 MeV, created by cosmic rays. Stay around
for years.

* Outer belts are much less stable, lots of fluctuations.

* Apollo 1 Rad or less.

* Low altitude is not very dangerous, problems occur when you go higher
than 1000 km. 

* Shielding is unacceptable, 15 T of Al to get dose of 1 Rad for 2mx2mx2m
box.

* Shielding with a magnetic field. 5 MA to shield protons, 30 kA to shield
electrons.

* Moving off equator would reduce shielding 3x, but reduces payload.

* Speeding up would help, but very difficult.

* Use detachable shields. Didn't understand the scheme here.

* Combination methods? Use cargo as a shield? Only practical when the
elevator gets bigger (100 T or more).

P2: Blaise Gassend, MIT, Fate of a Broken Elevator

Talk went well...

P1: Wednesday April 6th 2005

P2: J E D Cline 

Talking about Space Carousels. I arrived late, and unfortunately didn't get
what the scheme is, only a bunch of implementation details.

P2: Bryan Laubscher, Space Elevator on other Worlds

Work done with his son Jason Laubscher.

* Do simple scaling relationships exist for SE? Planet mass and radius
highly correlated because of roughly common density. However the rotation
rate is completely variable. Used Brad's Excel spreadsheet to study
elevator for various planets and with various counterweight to ribbon mass
ratios.

* Plotted SE Length vs. rotation rate. Seems to give a scaling
relationship (however does not exist for length vs. rotation rate).

P2: Jim Dempsey, Space Elevator: The 2nd generation

Talk is hard to follow, but he has a nifty design.

Essentially there is a regular space elevator that is used as a support
structure for a "double serpentine loop". I.e., a second ribbon, attached
to the first that loops down to the ground, up beyond GEO and then back to
an anchor on the ground. Mass is distributed along the ribbon so that there
is an upward tension at the bottom of the first loop. By placing a payload
there, you can get the payload to be lifted. Once again the appropriate mass
distribution causes the payload to be decelerated as it approaches GEO. At
GEO it ends up stopping, and a down-payload can replace the up-payload. The
downwards trip is the inverse of the upwards trip.

Nice features are: no energy input as long as up and down mass transfer is
the same, payload can be moving a lot faster.

It is a lot more acrobatic than the standard SE, though.

P2: Ron Morgan, LANL, Toxicology

* We don't know nearly enough. A lot of work still needs to be done. Looks
fairly benign to humans, except upon inhalation. Experiments with large
doses inhaled by mice show that nanotubes can get into bloodstream. Also
mice die of asphyxiation with too large doses, but this is a different
mechanism in which disease is caused by the nanotubes.

* Last year there was no real study available. This year there are tons of
studies around; not all directly relevant, but many are. So far there
doesn't seem to be a consensus. So far Ron recommends caution. Lots of
interest, as long as funding is provided. This was not the case last year.

* Dozens of studies ongoing involving organisms from cell cultures to mice
and fish. There is also a federally funded panel of experts who will try to
establish baseline risk factors for nanomaterials. There was a conference
in Houston in February to exchange information about the current state of
nanotoxicology.

* Federal report indicates that toxicity to consumers is modest, but
factory workers may be at risk. Need to spend more money on toxicology
studies.

* Need to study effect on whole organisms and on ecosystems.

P2: Space Elevator Panel

Panelists : Eric Westling, Bradley Edwards, David Smitherman, David
Livingston, Blaise Gassend

I was on it so I only have written notes. I may scan and post them later
(ask if you are interested).

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